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Peak by Anders Ericsson and Robert Pool
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Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters.
As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events.
Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.” In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods.
It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
ISBN:2147483647
Author:Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
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The Power of Focus by Jack Canfield and Mark Victor Hansen
The Power of Focus: How to Hit Your Business, Personal and Financial Targets with Confidence and Certainty
The No1 problem that stops people getting what they want is lack of focus. Those that focus on what they want to achieve prosper, while those that don't struggle. In The Power of Focus, you'll discover the specific focusing strategies used by the world's most successful men and women. In this new, updated edition, you'll find out how to:
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Lieutenant General Daniel Opande In Pursuit of Peace in Africa
Daniel Ishmael Opande is a retired Kenyan military officer, who rose to the rank of Lieutenant General in the Kenyan Army and has had an illustrious career which included service in leadership positions in various UN peacekeeping mission.
Lieutenant-General Opande, was Kenya's Vice-Chief of General Staff following which he took over as the Force Commander of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) in 2003. Since November 2000, he has served with distinction as Force Commander of the United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL).
General Opande served as Deputy Force Commander with the United Nations Transitional Assistance Group in Namibia (UNTAG) from 1989 to 1990. He represented Kenya in the Mozambican peace process as a facilitator and negotiator between the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) and the Government of Mozambique from 1990 to 1993, and served as Chief Military Observer of the United Nations Observer Mission in Liberia (UNOMIL) from 1993 to 1995.
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Wild Ride Inside Ubers Quest for World Domination
Brief Summary
In your pocket is something amazing: a quick and easy way to summon a total stranger who will take you anywhere you'd like. In your hands is something equally amazing: the untold story of Uber's meteoric rise, and the massive ambitions of its larger-than-life founder and CEO.
Before Travis Kalanick became famous as the public face of Uber, he was a scrappy, rough-edged, loose-lipped entrepreneur. And even after taking Uber from the germ of an idea to a $69 billion global transportation behemoth, he still describes his company as a start-up. Like other Silicon Valley icons such as Steve Jobs and Elon Musk, he's always focused on the next disruptive innovation and the next world to conquer.
Both Uber and Kalanick have acquired a reputation for being combative, relentless, and iron-fisted against competitors. They've inspired both admiration and loathing as they've flouted government regulators, thrown the taxi industry into a tailspin, and stirred controversy over possible exploitation of drivers. They've even reshaped the deeply ingrained consumer behavior of not accepting a ride from a stranger--against the childhood warnings from everyone's parents.
Wild Ride is the first truly inside look at Uber's global empire. Veteran journalist Adam Lashinsky, the bestselling author of Inside Apple, traces the origins of Kalanick's massive ambitions in his humble roots, and he explores Uber's murky beginnings and the wild ride of its rapid growth and expansion into different industries.
Lashinsky draws on exclusive, in-depth interviews with Kalanick and many other sources who share new details about Uber's internal and external power struggles. He also examines its doomed venture into China and the furtive fight between Kalanick and his competitors at Google, Tesla, Lyft, and GM over self-driving cars. Lashinsky even got behind the wheel as an Uber driver himself to learn what it's really like.
Uber has made headlines thanks to its eye-popping valuations and swift expansion around the world. But this book is the first account of how Uber really became the giant it is today, and how it plans to conquer the future.
ISBN:9780735211391
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• Readers follow along her journey as she transforms challenging experiences—a difficult childhood, painful romantic relationships, and single parenting as a young mom—into fuel for her career as a successful entrepreneur and author driven by purpose and pasion
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After the Rain is a soulful guide to help you embrace all the beauty, love, and opportunity life has to offer.
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Clear, concise directions show you how to feed, bathe, hold and deal with your baby in a reassuring way. Featuring step-by-step illustrations and photo demonstrations, this book presents essential information as clearly as possible.
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Full Force and Effect
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The challenge facing President Jack Ryan is an old one with a terrifying new twist. The international stalemate with North Korea continues into its seventh decade. A young, untested dictator is determined to prove his strength by breaking the deadlock. Like his father before him, he hangs his plans on the country’s nuclear ambitions. Until now, that program was impeded by a lack of resources. However, there has been a dramatic change in the nation’s economic fortune. A rich deposit of valuable minerals have been found in the Hermit Kingdom. Coupled with their nuclear capabilities, the money from this find will make North Korea a dangerous force on the world stage.
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Brief Summary
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Insurgent
One choice can transform you—or it can destroy you. But every choice has consequences, and as unrest surges in the factions all around her, Tris Prior must continue trying to save those she loves—and herself—while grappling with haunting questions of grief and forgiveness, identity and loyalty, politics and love.
Tris's initiation day should have been marked by celebration and victory with her chosen faction; instead, the day ended with unspeakable horrors. War now looms as conflict between the factions and their ideologies grows. And in times of war, sides must be chosen, secrets will emerge, and choices will become even more irrevocable—and even more powerful.
Transformed by her own decisions but also by haunting grief and guilt, radical new discoveries, and shifting relationships, Tris must fully embrace her Divergence, even if she does not know what she may lose by doing so. New York Times bestselling author Veronica Roth's much-anticipated second book of the dystopian DIVERGENT series is another intoxicating thrill ride of a story, rich with hallmark twists, heartbreaks, romance, and powerful insights about human nature.""
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