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Peak by Anders Ericsson and Robert Pool
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Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters.
As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events.
Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.” In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods.
It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
ISBN:2147483647
Author:Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
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The African Origin of Civilization Myth or Reality by Cheikh Anta Diop
"The African Origin of Civilization: Myth or Reality” (1974) is a book by Cheikh Anta Diop, a Senegalese Egyptologist. It makes the case that both mankind and civilization started with black people. It argues that Ancient Egypt was largely Black African in race and culture during the first 2,000 years of its civilization.
Diop’s model goes like this:
1. Homo sapiens began in Africa and began as black people. It was as black people that they spread over Asia and Europe, taking the place of the Neanderthals.
2. The rise of different races: Over time black people in northern Eurasia became light-skinned and began to look like the people who live there today.
3. Between -3000 and -1500, the region stretching from North Africa through the South West Asia to India became civilized: Egypt, Canaan, Elam, Indus, etc. People were dark-skinned, like they still are today in Ethiopia and southern India. The Bible calls them the sons of Ham. The Greeks saw them as Ethiopians of one sort or other.
4. After -1500 this region has become whiter over time as wave after wave of light-skinned barbarians over thousands of years have come down from the north. In India people were separated into light- and dark-skinned castes. Elsewhere they have mixed more thoroughly.
5. Egyptian civilization spreads north of the Sahara to Western Europe by way of Greece and south of the Sahara to West Africa by way of Nubia.
Phoenix Summit Environmental Act Grade 2 (Approved)
In the Unlikely Event
In her highly anticipated new novel, Judy Blume, the New York Times # 1 best-selling author of Summer Sisters and of young adult classics such as Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, creates a richly textured and moving story of three generations of families, friends and strangers, whose lives are profoundly changed by unexpected events.In 1987, Miri Ammerman returns to her hometown of Elizabeth, New Jersey, to attend a commemoration of the worst year of her life.Thirty-five years earlier, when Miri was fifteen, and in love for the first time, a succession of airplanes fell from the sky, leaving a community reeling. Against this backdrop of actual events that Blume experienced in the early 1950s, when airline travel was new and exciting and everyone dreamed of going somewhere, Judy Blume imagines and weaves together a haunting story of three generations of families, friends, and strangers, whose lives are profoundly changed by these disasters.
She paints a vivid portrait of a particular time and place — Nat King Cole singing "Unforgettable,” Elizabeth Taylor haircuts, young (and not-so-young) love, explosive friendships, A-bomb hysteria, rumors of Communist threat. And a young journalist who makes his name reporting tragedy. Through it all, one generation reminds another that life goes on.In the Unlikely Event is a gripping novel with all the hallmarks of Judy Blume's unparalleled storytelling.
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Questions and Answers – Animals
Questions and Answers Animals encyclopedia for kids is a fantastic book to get young minds thinking about the world around them and the wildlife that inhabits it.
• Question and answer format appeals to the way young children approach new ideas.• Bright photos, illustrations and fun cartoons explain the facts.• Simple activities throughout to help kids put new ideas into context.
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DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: RODRICK RULES
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Whatever you do, don't ask Greg Heffley how he spent his summer vacation, because he definitely doesn't want to talk about it.
As Greg enters the new school year, he's eager to put the past three months behind him . . . and one event in particular.
Unfortunately for Greg, his older brother, Rodrick, knows all about the incident Greg wants to keep under wraps. But secrets have a way of getting out . . . especially when a diary is involved.
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DIARY OF A WIMPY KID
It's a new school year, and Greg Heffley finds himself thrust into middle school, where undersized weaklings share the hallways with kids who are taller, meaner, and already shaving. The hazards of growing up before you're ready are uniquely revealed through words and drawings as Greg records them in his diary.
In book one of this debut series, Greg is happy to have Rowley, his sidekick, along for the ride. But when Rowley's star starts to rise, Greg tries to use his best friend's newfound popularity to his own advantage, kicking off a chain of events that will test their friendship in hilarious fashion.
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Piano Manual Buying Using and Maintaining a Piano by John Bishop and Graham Barker
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Haynes manuals are now being published on a wide range of subjects, including musical instruments – and here comes coverage of one of the most popular and versatile instruments of all. This manual explains the essentials of buying a piano before moving on to the meat of the book – the care and maintenance of a piano.
A trouble-shooting section explains how to check condition and diagnose common piano ailments, and then three maintenance chapters follow, detailing different levels.
The ‘easy’ section covers routine tasks that anyone can and should do; ‘moderate’ looks at maintenance and repair that someone with good DIY skills can achieve; and ‘advanced’ covers work that is usually best left to professionals but that it’s nonetheless good to know about.
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Wimpy Kid Do-It-Yourself Book
The Wimpy Kid Do-It-Yourself Book, you're the author, illustrator, and main character. Filled with loads of interactive pages and plenty of space to write your own life's story, this book is all you need to create your masterpiece.
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Virgin Way
Now Branson gives an inside look at his strikingly different swashbuckling style of leadership. Learn how fun, family, passion, and the dying art of listening are key components to what his extended family of employees around the world have always dubbed (with a wink) the "Virgin Way.”
This unique perspective comes from a man who dropped out of school at sixteen, suffers from dyslexia, and has never worked for anyone but himself. He may be famous for thinking outside the box—an expression he despises—but Branson asserts that "you’ll never have to think outside the box if you refuse to let anyone build one around you.”
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"Through My African Eyes” is very informative and quite humorous, utilizing a modern quick precise narrative style. He is able to describe complex global geopolitical issues with incisive analysis. The book surf’s one through the experience with speed and historical accuracy. We see the visual the words impart, rather than being stuck in prose. The best part is being able to walk the journey informed by a largely Kenyan perspective. Jeff outlines clearly how biased reportage can splinter any society and promote its disintegration by pandering to people’s lowest instincts.
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Diary of a Wimpy Kid:The Third Wheel
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