ENJOY FREE DELIVERY WITHIN NAIROBI FOR ORDERS ABOVE 10,000
Nuria App
Kenyan Shilling (KSh)
  • Kenyan Shilling (KSh)
  • United States (US) dollar ($)
  • Pound sterling (£)
  • Ugandan Shilling (UGX)
0 Wishlist
Login / Register
  • Home
  • Shop
  • Kenyan Books
  • Rare Books
  • Gift Card
  • Blog
  • Contact Us
  • SELL ON NURIA
  • VENDOR LOGIN
Menu
41 items KShs64,652.00
Browse Categories
  • Kenya Books
  • Rare Books
  • International Bestsellers
  • Self Help & Motivation
  • Fiction
  • Autobiography
  • Business
  • Children’s Books
  • Kids & Teens
  • African Interest
  • Educational Books
  • Romances & Thrillers
HELP / SUPPORT

0794 233 261

41 items KShs64,652.00
View basket “Skin in the Game Paperback by Nassim ...” has been added to your basket.
View basket “Skin in the Game Paperback by Nassim ...” has been added to your basket.
-10%Sold out
Click to enlarge
Home Books Business Superforecasting
Peak by Anders Ericsson and Robert Pool KShs1,495.00 KShs1,421.00
Back to products
Dictator KShs850.00 KShs808.00

Superforecasting

KShs1,500.00 KShs1,350.00

Nuria Ranking: #486 in Business

Out of stock

Get updates when restocked

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters.
As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events.
Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.” In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods.
It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

ISBN:2147483647

Author:Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

Your order qualifies for free delivery within Nairobi!
Add to wishlist
SKU: d9731321ef4e Categories: Books, Business
Share:
Close
  • Shipping
  • Reviews (0)
  • Vendor Info
  • More Products
Shipping
Reviews (0)
Rated 0 out of 5
0 reviews
Rated 5 out of 5
0
Rated 4 out of 5
0
Rated 3 out of 5
0
Rated 2 out of 5
0
Rated 1 out of 5
0

Reviews

Clear filters

There are no reviews yet.

Be the first to review “Superforecasting” Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Vendor Info

Vendor Information

  • Store Name: Nuria Kenya
  • Vendor: nuria
  • No ratings found yet!
More Products

Mayowa and the Sea of Words by Chibundu Onuzo

Books, Fiction and Non Fiction, Kids & Teens
KShs1,490.00
Have you ever jumped on a book? Perhaps not. Most people would think it was a rather unusual thing to do. Ten-year-old Mayowa has always thought that her Grandpa Edward, who dyes his beard emerald green and jumps on books in private, is rather unusual too. Until one day she jumps on a book for herself, and uncovers a huge family secret … Mayowa can book jump.
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

Blue Shoes and Happiness

Books, African Interest
KShs899.00 KShs855.00
Brief Summary There is considerable excitement at The No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency. A cobra has been found in Precious Ramotswe's office. Then a nurse from a local medical clinic reveals that faulty blood–pressure readings are being recorded there. And Botswana has a new advice columnist, Aunty Emang, whose advice is rather curt for Mma Ramotswe’s taste. In this latest installment in the internationally best-selling, universally beloved series, there is considerable excitement at The No. 1 Ladies’ Detective Agency. A cobra has been found in Precious Ramotswe’s office. Then a nurse from a local medical clinic reveals that faulty blood–pressure readings are being recorded there. And Botswana has a new advice columnist, Aunty Emang, whose advice is rather curt for Mma Ramotswe’s taste. All this means a lot of work for our heroine and her inestimable assistant, Grace Makutsi, and they are, of course, up to the challenge. But there’s trouble brewing in Mma Makutsi’s own life. When Phuti Radiphuti misses their customary dinner date, she begins to wonder if he is having second thoughts about their engagement. And while Mma Makutsi may be able to buy that fashionably narrow (and uncomfortable) pair of blue shoes, it may not buy her the happiness that Mma Ramotswe promises her she’ll find in the simpler things—in contentment with the world and enough tea to smooth over the occasional bumps in the road. ISBN:9781400075713 Author:Alexander McCall Smith
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view

Complications

Novels, Fiction, Modern & Contemporary Fiction (Post C 1945), Books
KShs1,500.00
Known for its luxury and discrete service, the Hotel Louis XVI in Paris has attracted an international clientele of the rich and famous for many decades. Now, after extensive renovation and under new management, an esteemed group of loyal... By Danielle Steel
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view

Alka Easy Reading series Grade 04 (36×3) Assorted

Books, Children's Books
KShs610.00
By ALKA PUBLICATION
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

The Power of Your Leadership Making a Difference with Others by John Maxwell

Books, Self Help & Motivation
KShs1,199.00 KShs1,140.00
Brief Summary John C. Maxwell, #1 New York Times bestselling author, shows you how to shift from success to significance by leading with passion and purpose in a compact new book derived from his previous title, Intentional Living. We all want to live a life that matters. But what is true significance? How do we define it, and how do we achieve it? In THE POWER OF YOUR LEADERSHIP, Maxwell demonstrates what can come from combining personal passion and leadership in a way that goes beyond mere success. By finding like-minded people and putting them first, you can make a difference in their lives and create a united effort that leaves a lasting positive impact. Learn how to attract people to your cause, articulate your vision, and add value from your sweet spot. Using his personal story of how he became one of the most recognized leadership experts in the world, John Maxwell shows you how to lead others according to your own purpose and create a lasting legacy. ISBN:9781478922452 Author:John C Maxwell
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

No Bad Ideas Byron Driver Hat

Fashion & Clothing, Men Fashion
KShs4,199.00 KShs3,990.00
Key Features The sleek look of the NO BAD IDEAS Byron Driver hat is based on a seasoned style that has stood the test of time. It is adorned with a top button as well as the iconic NO BAD IDEAS metal crown logo, and an individual color for coordination. The Byron can take a look from common to characteristic. • Traditional Driver design • Specialty Fabric • Striped undervisor • Inner pocket • Color: Gray • Size: S/M - L/X • Credible Hats
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view

Related products

-10%

Through My African Eyes by Jeff Koinange

Books, African Interest
Rated 5.00 out of 5
KShs3,890.00 KShs3,500.00
"Through My African Eyes!” is a concise narrative covering some of the major players in 20th century African politics. The book is rich with insights into the personal and intellectual underpinnings of many historical events in Africa. Chronicles of some pretty interesting Africans from warlords, soldiers, victims and politicians lend insight into Jeff’s celebrated journalistic style. Through his eyes we are made to understand the role of journalist’s as binders of our social fabric. "Through My African Eyes” is very informative and quite humorous, utilizing a modern quick precise narrative style. He is able to describe complex global geopolitical issues with incisive analysis. The book surf’s one through the experience with speed and historical accuracy. We see the visual the words impart, rather than being stuck in prose. The best part is being able to walk the journey informed by a largely Kenyan perspective. Jeff outlines clearly how biased reportage can splinter any society and promote its disintegration by pandering to people’s lowest instincts. The narrative draws out lesser-known aspects of his life. Jeff’s unblinking examination of his grandfather’s life is historically illuminating and serves as a symbolic bridge between the beginning and the end of colonialism. Jeff is the first African ever to win a Television Emmy and a George Foster Peabody. He merited the Vernon Jarrett Award as well as the prestigious! ‘Prix Bayeux’ for reportage that arrested global crises."
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-21%

Jesma Trial Series Class 6

Books, Revision Books
KShs1,200.00 KShs950.00
Brief Summary Jesma Trial Series class 6 With a combination of a whole year exam series prepared for the learner to understand question answering technique.
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-6%Sold out

What to Expect When You’re Expecting by Heidi Murkoff

Books, Parenting
KShs3,500.00 KShs3,290.00
Announcing a brand new, cover-to-cover revision of America's pregnancy bible. What to Expect When You're Expecting is a perennial New York Times bestseller and one of USA Today's 25 most influential books of the past 25 years. It's read by more than 90% of pregnant women who read a pregnancy book--the most iconic, must-have book for parents-to-be, with over 14.5 million copies in print. Now comes the Fourth Edition, a new book for a new generation of expectant moms--featuring a new look, a fresh perspective, and a friendlier-than-ever voice. It's filled with the most up-to-date information reflecting not only what's new in pregnancy, but what's relevant to pregnant women. Heidi Murkoff has rewritten every section of the book, answering dozens of new questions and including loads of new asked-for material, such as a detailed week-by-week fetal development section in each of the monthly chapters, an expanded chapter on pre-conception, and a brand new one on carrying multiples. More comprehensive, reassuring, and empathetic than ever, the Fourth Edition incorporates the most recent developments in obstetrics and addresses the most current lifestyle trends (from tattooing and belly piercing to Botox and aromatherapy). There's more than ever on pregnancy matters practical (including an expanded section on workplace concerns), physical (with more symptoms, more solutions), emotional (more advice on riding the mood roller coaster), nutritional (from low-carb to vegan, from junk food–dependent to caffeine-addicted), and sexual (what's hot and what's not in pregnant lovemaking), as well as much more support for that very important partner in parenting, the dad-to-be. Overflowing with tips, helpful hints, and humor (a pregnant woman's best friend), this new edition is more accessible and easier to use than ever before. It's everything parents-to-be have come to expect from What to Expect... only better.
Add to wishlist
Read more
Quick view
-5%

HERO

Books, Self Help & Motivation
KShs1,695.00 KShs1,611.00
Twelve successful people today took seemingly impossible journeys to success. Each of us was born with everything we need to live our greatest dream, fulfill our missions and change the world. You too can be a hero. ISBN:1471133442 Author:BRYNE RHONDA
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-7%

Encyclopedia of Gardening

Books, Home & Living
KShs7,500.00 KShs7,000.00
Brief summary Fully revised and updated edition of the world's finest and most authoritative source of gardening advice, from the experts at the RHS Marking 20 years since first publication, the updated edition of the RHS Encyclopedia of Gardening is the classic reference for keen gardeners. Packed with unrivalled gardening advice you'll find guidance and step-by-steps on everything from pruning to propagation. Plus new topics reflect current trends including how to grow fruit and vegetables in containers and green roofs. Whatever you’re level of skill in the great outdoors, expert tips and guidance from Editor Christopher Brickell and a team of specialist contributors, the RHS Encyclopedia of Gardening will help you create and keep your garden perfect all year round. ISBN:9781409383949 Author:Christopher Brickell
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-17%

DIARY OF A WIMPY KID

Books, Kids & Teens
KShs1,190.00 KShs990.00
It's a new school year, and Greg Heffley finds himself thrust into middle school, where undersized weaklings share the hallways with kids who are taller, meaner, and already shaving. The hazards of growing up before you're ready are uniquely revealed through words and drawings as Greg records them in his diary. In book one of this debut series, Greg is happy to have Rowley, his sidekick, along for the ride. But when Rowley's star starts to rise, Greg tries to use his best friend's newfound popularity to his own advantage, kicking off a chain of events that will test their friendship in hilarious fashion. ISBN:141324906 Author:KINNEY JEFF
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

The Big Book of Customer Service Training Games

Books, Business
KShs2,495.00 KShs2,371.00
Help your employees to excel in dealing with the public with this stimulating, fun-filled collection of customer service training games. Designed not only to teach important skills but also to spark enthusiasm and a high level of involvement in the participants, these games utilize entertaining and instructive techniques such as role-playing, charades, brainstorming, and debate. As a result of these exercises, employees will learn how to create a rapport with the customer, how to focus on the unique needs of individual customers, how to maintain a positive attitude, and more." ISBN:2147483647 Author:Peggy Carlaw, Vasudha Deming, Vasudha Kathleen Deming
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

Hot Flat and Crowded by Thomas Friedman

Books, Energy
KShs1,699.00 KShs1,615.00
Brief Summary Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution – and How It Can Renew America In this brilliant, essential book, Pulitzer Prize-winning author Thomas L. Friedman speaks to America's urgent need for national renewal and explains how a green revolution can bring about both a sustainable environment and a sustainable America. Friedman explains how global warming, rapidly growing populations, and the expansion of the world’s middle class through globalization have produced a dangerously unstable planet--one that is "hot, flat, and crowded." In this Release 2.0 edition, he also shows how the very habits that led us to ravage the natural world led to the meltdown of the financial markets and the Great Recession. The challenge of a sustainable way of life presents the United States with an opportunity not only to rebuild its economy, but to lead the world in radically innovating toward cleaner energy. And it could inspire Americans to something we haven't seen in a long time--nation-building in America--by summoning the intelligence, creativity, and concern for the common good that are our greatest national resources. Hot, Flat, and Crowded is classic Thomas L. Friedman: fearless, incisive, forward-looking, and rich in surprising common sense about the challenge--and the promise--of the future. ISBN:9780374166854 Author:Thomas Friedman
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

Allegiant

Books, Kids & Teens
KShs1,195.00 KShs1,136.00
What if your whole world was a lie? What if a single revelation—like a single choice—changed everything? What if love and loyalty made you do things you never expected? The explosive conclusion to Veronica Roth's #1 New York Times bestselling Divergent trilogy reveals the secrets of the dystopian world that has captivated millions of readers in Divergent and Insurgent." ISBN:7444113 Author:ROTH VERONICA
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-6%

Five People You Meet In Heaven by Albom Mitch

Books, Self Help & Motivation
KShs1,900.00 KShs1,790.00
Eddie is a wounded war veteran, an old man who has lived, in his mind, an uninspired life. His job is fixing rides at a seaside amusement park. On his 83rd birthday, a tragic accident kills him as he tries to save a little girl from a falling cart. He awakes in the afterlife, where he learns that heaven is not a destination, but an answer. In heaven, five people explain your life to you. Some you knew, others may have been strangers. One by one, from childhood to soldier to old age, Eddie's five people revisit their connections to him on earth, illuminating the mysteries of his "meaningless" life, and revealing the haunting secret behind the eternal question: "Why was I here?"
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%Sold out

Reckless

Books, Romances & Thrillers
KShs895.00 KShs851.00
Once upon a time, Tracy Whitney was one of the best thieves in the business. Then she settled down and had a child—a beautiful, bright, mischievous boy who was the center of her life. Tracy planned to spend the rest of her days quietly, living anonymously deep in the stunning Colorado mountains, devoted to raising her son. But tragedy forces her to face her greatest nightmare. Now, with nothing left to protect, this superb con artist, jewel thief, computer wizard, and cat burglar returns to the hunt, more dangerous, ruthless, and reckless than ever. The world faces a new terror threat from Group 99, a diverse collection of global hackers intent on the collapse of capitalism and private wealth and the creation of a new world order. When the group turns to violence—kidnapping an American investigative journalist, shooting a British military hostage, and blowing up an international industrialist—the mysterious woman pulling their strings, a wily and wealthy American known only as Althea, becomes the CIA’s most sought criminal. But their only hope of finding her is a woman with a dark and dangerous past of her own. A woman who has also successfully evaded detection by the authorities around the world: Tracy. Convinced that Althea is behind the deadly act that shattered her life, Tracy sets out on a global hunt to flush out her prey. But as she soon discovers, the truth is as elusive as her target. Hampered by corruption, lies, and enemies masked as allies, Tracy will be pushed to the brink, where she must face her darkest demons. All of her experience tells Tracy that the answers are right in front of her—if only she can look at the clues in the right way. Propelled by an unquenchable thirst for revenge, and with the fate of so many resting in her hands, just how reckless will Tracy become when she has nothing left to lose? An addictive tale of espionage, mystery, passion, greed, betrayal, and vengeance that takes you from the beautiful Rocky Mountains to Europe’s oldest and grandest cities, filled with a cast of intriguing characters both new and familiar, Sidney Sheldon’s Reckless is a glamorous thrill ride that will leave you breathless until its shocking end." ISBN:2147483647 Author:Sidney Sheldon, Tilly Bagshawe
Add to wishlist
Read more
Quick view
-8%

DIARY OF A WIMPY KID LAST STRAW

Books, Kids & Teens
KShs1,200.00 KShs1,100.00
Let's face it: Greg Heffley will never change his wimpy ways. Somebody just needs to explain that to Greg's father. You see, Frank Heffley actually thinks he can get his son to toughen up, and he enlists Greg in organized sports and other "manly" endeavors. Of course, Greg is able to easily sidestep his father's efforts to change him. But when Greg's dad threatens to send him to military academy, Greg realizes he has to shape up . . . or get shipped out. ISBN:141324920 Author:KINNEY JEFF
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-9%

The Secret by Rhonda Byrne

Books, Self Help & Motivation
KShs3,490.00 KShs3,190.00
For the first time, all the pieces of The Secret come together in an incredible revelation that will be life-transforming for all who experience it. In this book, you'll learn how to use The Secret in every aspect of your life -- money, health, relationships, happiness, and in every interaction you have in the world. You'll begin to understand the hidden, untapped power that's within you, and this revelation can bring joy to every aspect of your life. The Secret contains wisdom from modern-day teachers -- men and women who have used it to achieve health, wealth, and happiness. By applying the knowledge of The Secret, they bring to light compelling stories of eradicating disease, acquiring massive wealth, overcoming obstacles, and achieving what many would regard as impossible.
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-16%

Wimpy Kid Do-It-Yourself Book

Books, Kids & Teens
KShs1,190.00 KShs1,000.00
The Wimpy Kid Do-It-Yourself Book, you're the author, illustrator, and main character. Filled with loads of interactive pages and plenty of space to write your own life's story, this book is all you need to create your masterpiece. Whatever you do, make sure you put it someplace safe after you finish. Because when you're rich and famous, this thing is going to be worth a fortune. ISBN:141339665 Author:Kinney Jeff
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

How To Write

Books, Dictionaries & References
KShs1,899.00 KShs1,805.00
Are you sometimes unsure of how to write a business letter or a social note? Do you come up blank when you have to compose a press release, a complaint, a request for a credit check, or a wedding invitation? Now there’s help. Every form of written correspondence has its own protocol, and this authoritative yet easy-to-use reference book presents the best advice on writing all of them. How to Write It includes models and advice for virtually any situation, ranging from direct-mail pieces to party invitations, resumes to collection letters, proposals to notes of congratulation, product orders to thank-you notes. Your complete guide to everything you need to write, this indispensable volume also includes: A time-saving compendium of over 250 samples that can be used as templates to suit any situation. Grammar and punctuation guides An appendix on bias-free language for the new millennium How to adapt traditional forms of communication to e-mail and the Internet without losing any clarity of expression. Forms of address for everyone from your next-door neighbor to royalty. How to Write It deals with every type of letter and document, from the ones we enjoy writing to the ones we dread. Indexed for immediate answers, this quick-reference guide is an invaluable tool for every home, business, or classroom writer. ISBN:1607740322 Author:LAMB SANDRA E.
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
-5%

DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: HARD LUCK

Books, Kids & Teens
KShs1,295.00 KShs1,231.00
Greg Heffley's on a losing streak. His best friend, Rowley Jefferson, has ditched him, and finding new friends in middle school is proving to be a tough task. To change his fortunes, Greg decides to take a leap of faith and turn his decisions over to chance. Will a roll of the dice turn things around, or is Greg's life destined to be just another hard-luck story? ISBN:141352381 Author:KINNEY JEFF
Add to wishlist
Add to basket
Quick view
delivery

QUICK DELIVERY

Swift dispatch

ONLINE PAYMENT

Multiple options

EXPERT SUPPORT

Help when you need it

WIDE VARIETY

Thousands of books

GLOBAL SHIPPING

Worldwide delivery

  • TALK TO US
    • 0794 233261 / 0724 670194
    • nuriakenyabookstore@gmail.com
    • The Bazaar Building, 1st Floor
  • About Nuria
    • Our Story
    • Blog
    • Contact Us
  • VENDORS
    • Sell on Nuria
    • Vendor Login
    • Privacy Policy
  • USEFUL LINKS
    • Delivery Policy
    • Returns
    • Gift Card Balance
digitals-app-store-button
google-play-button

We Accept

2023 NURIA KENYA All rights reserved
  • Menu
  • Categories
  • Kenya Books
  • Rare Books
  • International Bestsellers
  • Self Help & Motivation
  • Fiction
  • Autobiography
  • Business
  • Children’s Books
  • Kids & Teens
  • African Interest
  • Educational Books
  • Romances & Thrillers
  • Home
  • Shop
  • Gift Card
  • About Us
  • Nuria App
  • Contact Us
  • Wishlist
  • Login / Register
Shopping cart
Close
Sign in
Close

Lost your password?

No account yet?

Create an Account
Shop
Sidebar
0 Wishlist
41 items Cart
My account